Model Predictions
| Model | Cal State Northridge Matadors | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 2.9% | 97.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 7.1% | 92.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 1.4% | 98.6% | +23.3 | ✓ (2.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 17.1% | 82.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 11.3% | 88.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +21 (91-70). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rita Nazario | 25 | 4-10 | 3-9 | 5-5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +0.4 |
| Nadia Bernard | 24 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | -4.4 |
| Erika Aspajo | 23 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | -9.5 |
| Mariona Cos-Morales | 19 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -0.3 |
| Morgan Edwards | 19 | 3-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | -9.2 |
| Amya Moody | 18 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -1.6 |
| Laini Dahlin | 18 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | -4.6 |
| Saray White | 13 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -7.7 |
| Alondra Lizama | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +8.1 |
| Kelly Tumlin | 12 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -16.0 |
| Jite Gbemuotor | 9 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -7.4 |
| Maya Contreras | 8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4.7 |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nat Martinez | 23 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | +21.4 |
| Naomi Panganiban | 22 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 7 | +10.4 |
| Kaelyn Hamilton | 21 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -4.6 |
| Kennedy Lee | 20 | 8-14 | 7-10 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 17 | +28.6 |
| Nala Williams | 20 | 8-10 | 2-3 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 20 | +18.8 |
| Bailey Barnhard | 19 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | +2.6 |
| Alyssa Jackson | 18 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | -7.1 |
| Kendall Mosley | 16 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4.9 |
| CJ Latta | 16 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8.0 |
| Maria Konstantinidou | 12 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -8.2 |
| Sofia Kelemeni | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +4.0 |
| Ellie Chen | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Aubrey Cook | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter