Model Predictions
| Model | Pacific Tigers | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.7% | 93.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 11.6% | 88.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 5.5% | 94.5% | +15.7 | ✓ (13.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 22.3% | 77.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.6% | 98.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.0% | 98.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.0% | 98.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.0% | 81.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +2 (70-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Pacific Tigers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daria Nestorov | 36 | 4-12 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 13 | +15.2 |
| Sydney Ward | 34 | 7-9 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 18 | +6.7 |
| Winner Bartholomew | 29 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 8 | -2.1 |
| Nyah Lowery | 28 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +5.8 |
| Stella Szabo | 28 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | +9.9 |
| Sophia Mindermann | 22 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | -6.5 |
| Marina Radocaj | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +6.1 |
| Luisa Anderegg | 6 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Hannah Burg | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | -4.6 |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Lee | 34 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 13 | +5.6 |
| Naomi Panganiban | 33 | 6-10 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 9 | +5.2 |
| Nala Williams | 32 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 14 | -6.8 |
| Nat Martinez | 30 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | -1.8 |
| Alyssa Jackson | 26 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -11.0 |
| Bailey Barnhard | 14 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +2.3 |
| Kaelyn Hamilton | 13 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -9.2 |
| CJ Latta | 11 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Maria Konstantinidou | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -6.5 |
* = starter