Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Hoosiers | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.3% | 90.7% | +15.7 | ✓ (5.3 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.3% | 81.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 16.3% | 83.7% | +9.0 | ✓ (12.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 24.0% | 76.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.3% | 84.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.0% | 85.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans +21 (81-60). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Indiana Hoosiers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Wilkerson * | 37 | 6-14 | 5-11 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 6 | -5.0 |
| Tayton Conerway * | 36 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | -15.7 |
| Tucker DeVries * | 33 | 3-10 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +2.7 |
| Sam Alexis * | 16 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -2.3 |
| Conor Enright * | 16 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Nick Dorn | 28 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -17.7 |
| Reed Bailey | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -5.3 |
| Trent Sisley | 16 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -9.7 |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. * | 33 | 8-14 | 1-6 | 6-8 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 22 | +18.9 |
| Coen Carr * | 31 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +9.4 |
| Jaxon Kohler * | 28 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 19 | +14.9 |
| Divine Ugochukwu * | 23 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -3.4 |
| Carson Cooper * | 22 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 15 | -2.4 |
| Jordan Scott | 21 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | +20.3 |
| Kur Teng | 17 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | +10.1 |
| Cameron Ward | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +13.0 |
| Denham Wojcik | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Trey Fort | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Jesse McCulloch | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Colin Walton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Brennan Walton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Nick Sanders | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
* = starter