Model Predictions
| Model | USC Trojans | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.2% | 93.8% | +19.1 | ✓ (9.9 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.6% | 82.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 6.0% | 94.0% | +15.1 | ✓ (13.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.4% | 66.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 4.9% | 95.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.2% | 96.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.0% | 97.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.7% | 80.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans +29 (80-51). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
USC Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Cofie * | 33 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | -6.1 |
| Jerry Easter II * | 30 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | -5.1 |
| Ezra Ausar * | 30 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 9 | -10.4 |
| Ryan Cornish * | 21 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -10.3 |
| Terrance Williams II * | 19 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2.1 |
| Kam Woods | 21 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Chad Baker-Mazara | 18 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | -19.4 |
| Gabe Dynes | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1.9 |
| Jaden Brownell | 11 | 1-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | -6.1 |
| Jordan Marsh | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4.8 |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. * | 28 | 6-13 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +2.0 |
| Carson Cooper * | 27 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | +9.6 |
| Jaxon Kohler * | 25 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 19 | +12.9 |
| Coen Carr * | 24 | 6-14 | 1-5 | 5-8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 12 | -0.4 |
| Divine Ugochukwu * | 17 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +10.5 |
| Jordan Scott | 18 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +15.6 |
| Kur Teng | 18 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | +12.4 |
| Cameron Ward | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | +5.0 |
| Jesse McCulloch | 11 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +0.5 |
| Trey Fort | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | +0.6 |
| Denham Wojcik | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +3.5 |
| Colin Walton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Brennan Walton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Nick Sanders | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter