Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois Fighting Illini | Penn State Nittany Lions | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 93.6% | 6.4% | -22.2 | ✓ (14.2 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 85.4% | 14.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 97.6% | 2.4% | -20.3 | ✓ (12.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 72.0% | 28.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 95.9% | 4.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 95.8% | 4.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 95.8% | 4.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 84.6% | 15.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Penn State Nittany Lions -8 (65-73). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylan Boswell * | 35 | 5-13 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 8 | -2.3 |
| Andrej Stojakovic * | 31 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | -4.4 |
| David Mirkovic * | 26 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 5-6 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 17 | -5.1 |
| Keaton Wagler * | 20 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 7-8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +13.3 |
| Tomislav Ivisic * | 17 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Ben Humrichous | 26 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic | 23 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 1-4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 | -3.3 |
| Jake Davis | 15 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -9.6 |
| Mihailo Petrovic | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.2 |
| Brandon Lee | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.5 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Rice * | 28 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +10.2 |
| Kayden Mingo * | 27 | 5-12 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 | +6.0 |
| Freddie Dilione V * | 26 | 4-11 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | -5.1 |
| I. Jurić * | 22 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +1.9 |
| Josh Reed * | 12 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -8.9 |
| Dominick Stewart | 26 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +1.9 |
| Melih Tunca | 22 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +9.2 |
| Sasa Ciani | 18 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +3.9 |
| T. Mirtić | 10 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | +1.0 |
| Mason Blackwood | 9 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +6.1 |
* = starter