Model Predictions
| Model | Purdue Boilermakers | Northwestern Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 70.1% | 29.9% | -13.0 | ✓ (8.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 59.6% | 40.4% | -4.3 | ✓ (0.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 77.9% | 22.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.8% | 24.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 73.7% | 26.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.0% | 41.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Northwestern Wildcats -5 (62-67). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Purdue Boilermakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nya Smith * | 40 | 7-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Tara Daye * | 35 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Kiki Smith * | 35 | 6-20 | 2-11 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 2 | - |
| McKenna Layden * | 29 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Kendall Puryear * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Lana McCarthy | 21 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Hila Karsh | 15 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Saige Stahl | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Avery Gordon | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Northwestern Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Lau * | 40 | 7-12 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 19 | - |
| Grace Sullivan * | 40 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 5 | - |
| DaiJa Turner * | 13 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Tate Lash * | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Sammy White * | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Casey Harter | 38 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Xamiya Walton | 24 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Tayla Thomas | 18 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Kat Righeimer | 14 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
* = starter