Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois Fighting Illini | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | β |
| Margin | 17.1% | 82.9% | +8.7 | β (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 23.7% | 76.3% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 22.8% | 77.2% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 22.5% | 77.5% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | β |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans +6 (81-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berry Wallace | 40 | 8-17 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 15 | -2.3 |
| Gretchen Dolan | 38 | 4-16 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 7 | -7.0 |
| Maddie Webber | 28 | 8-13 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 13 | +6.6 |
| Cearah Parchment | 27 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | +1.8 |
| Destiny Jackson | 27 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 14 | +6.1 |
| Jasmine Brown-Hagger | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6.5 |
| Aaliyah Guyton | 13 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -6.3 |
| Lety Vasconcelos | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -5.1 |
| Irene Noya Catoira | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Naomi Benson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.9 |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashunda Jones | 36 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 5-5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | +9.2 |
| Kennedy Blair | 33 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 11-12 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 24 | +15.9 |
| Emma Shumate | 32 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 11 | +4.4 |
| Ines Sotelo | 31 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Jalyn Brown | 20 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Grace VanSlooten | 20 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 10 | +15.1 |
| S. SamboliΔ | 13 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.8 |
| Juliann Woodard | 8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | +0.9 |
| Marah Dykstra | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.1 |
* = starter