Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Little Rock Trojans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 73.7% | 26.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 81.9% | 18.1% | -8.3 | ✓ (3.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 67.2% | 32.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.5% | 39.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Little Rock Trojans -12 (78-90). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hampton | 32 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 17 | +6.6 |
| F. Sylla | 24 | 6-7 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 11 | - |
| TJ Caldwell | 23 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 18 | - |
| Chandler Jackson | 23 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth | 23 | 2-9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -2 | +1.8 |
| K. Hayman | 22 | 5-9 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 13 | - |
| R. Smith | 17 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Chudi Dioramma | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | +4.7 |
| Christian Harmon | 12 | 2-9 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Aly Tounkara | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
Little Rock Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnathan Lawson | 40 | 13-19 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 19 | -6.7 |
| Kachi Nzeh | 38 | 11-17 | 2-6 | 6-8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 21 | -6.5 |
| Braxton Bayless | 38 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 12 | -6.8 |
| Christian Hughes | 33 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Tracy Steele Jr. | 24 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4.8 |
| Caleb Pennyfeather | 23 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6.5 |
| Cameron Wallace | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1.8 |
| Truman Claytor IV | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter