Model Predictions
| Model | Little Rock Trojans | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.8% | 82.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.3% | 76.7% | +6.6 | ✓ (2.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats +9 (65-56). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Little Rock Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnathan Lawson * | 38 | 3-11 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | -12.7 |
| Braxton Bayless * | 36 | 4-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | -18.9 |
| Kachi Nzeh * | 30 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | -0.8 |
| Tuongthach Gatkek * | 27 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 10 | -8.0 |
| Terrion Burgess * | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.0 |
| Tracy Steele Jr. | 29 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6.7 |
| Cameron Wallace | 27 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | -8.4 |
| Christian Hughes | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Caleb Pennyfeather | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.0 |
| Joseph Thomas | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franck Emmou * | 32 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 11 | +8.6 |
| Mark Drone * | 32 | 6-9 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +8.7 |
| DJ Hall * | 23 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 8 | +14.9 |
| Kaden Gumbs * | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +8.2 |
| Makai Willis * | 9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Dimp Pernell | 26 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +13.6 |
| Kyndall Davis | 20 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -0.9 |
| Robert Fields | 20 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | +8.0 |
| T. Sant | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jaelyn Lee | 8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -4.1 |
| Isaiah Barganier | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.0 |
| Jalen Bolden | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.0 |
* = starter