Model Predictions
| Model | Merrimack Warriors | Rider Broncs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 90.5% | 9.5% | -18.9 | ✓ (7.1 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 89.9% | 10.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 90.9% | 9.1% | -12.7 | ✓ (13.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 84.0% | 16.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 93.1% | 6.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 93.1% | 6.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 74.2% | 25.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Rider Broncs -26 (47-73). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Merrimack Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevair Kennedy * | 35 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +21.6 |
| Tye Dorset * | 35 | 7-8 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 14 | +9.7 |
| Ernest Shelton * | 35 | 5-10 | 1-6 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +6.7 |
| Todd Brogna * | 29 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | +7.7 |
| Andrés Marrero * | 28 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 | +10.9 |
| KC Ugwuakazi | 14 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | +11.3 |
| Dylan Veillette | 10 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | -5.5 |
| Jaylen Stinson | 7 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | -3.3 |
| Brendan Johnson | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -0.1 |
| Brandon Legris | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1.8 |
Rider Broncs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Smith * | 37 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 7-14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 19 | -15.7 |
| Flash Burton * | 31 | 6-17 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 2 | -9.1 |
| Zion Cruz * | 31 | 2-11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | +1.2 |
| Cole McCabe * | 16 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -14.1 |
| Shemani Fuller * | 16 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | -7.4 |
| Jamir McNeil | 24 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6.6 |
| AB Coulibaly | 21 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +4.2 |
| Antwan Wilson | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -13.0 |
| Kristupas Kepežinskas | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.5 |
| Daniel Helterhoff | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Davis Bynum | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1.6 |
* = starter