Model Predictions
| Model | Morgan State Lady Bears | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 0.6% | 99.4% | +40.0 | ✓ (10.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.1% | 96.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 0.0% | 100.0% | +44.2 | ✓ (5.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 2.1% | 97.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +50 (86-36). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Morgan State Lady Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kailyn Nash * | 30 | 2-11 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 | -13.8 |
| Mihjae Hayes * | 25 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -19.7 |
| Tiyanna James * | 23 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -9 | -13.9 |
| Gabrielle Johnson * | 19 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | -10.5 |
| Sierra Headquist * | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4.8 |
| Ja'la Bannerman | 24 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 | -15.0 |
| Maya Woodson | 19 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -13.1 |
| Michaela Bogans | 12 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -4.6 |
| Kimora Daly | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2.0 |
| Success Prysock | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3.6 |
| Selina Gutierrez | 9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4 | -9.8 |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Clark * | 28 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 20 | +16.7 |
| Kymora Johnson * | 26 | 9-17 | 3-9 | 3-3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 18 | +22.7 |
| Tabitha Amanze * | 23 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 13 | +12.2 |
| Romi Levy * | 19 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 17 | +13.4 |
| Jillian Brown * | 8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +3.2 |
| Breona Hurd | 22 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | +11.4 |
| Gabby White | 20 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | +6.6 |
| Adeang Ring | 15 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +5.6 |
| Raiane Dias Dos Santos | 14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -1.4 |
| Olivia McGhee | 14 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | +8.6 |
| Caitlin Weimar | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | +6.8 |
* = starter