Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | Bowling Green Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.1% | 42.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.3% | 88.7% | +11.4 | ✓ (23.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Bowling Green Falcons +35 (83-48). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimp Pernell | 27 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | -18.7 |
| Franck Emmou | 24 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | -10.9 |
| Mark Drone | 21 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -12.3 |
| Jalen Bolden | 20 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -13.2 |
| Kyndall Davis | 19 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -10.2 |
| Robert Fields | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -8.3 |
| Kaden Gumbs | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -18.2 |
| DJ Hall | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -22.2 |
| Jaelyn Lee | 14 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -15.3 |
| T. Sant | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Makai Willis | 8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | -5.6 |
| Cameron Simpson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.8 |
| Deke Thompson | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Isaiah Barganier | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bowling Green Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javontae Campbell | 29 | 6-13 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 17 | +31.7 |
| Mayar Wol | 28 | 6-6 | 4-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 16 | +16.8 |
| Josiah Shackelford | 24 | 4-11 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +20.5 |
| Justin Thomas | 23 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +18.2 |
| Troy Glover II | 21 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +29.0 |
| Javon Ruffin | 19 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 11 | +17.3 |
| Sam Towns | 17 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +17.5 |
| Makhi Leach | 15 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +1.5 |
| Jason Kimbrough Jr. | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +5.4 |
| Aiden Goins | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -7.1 |
| Camden Karel | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Christian Dedivanaj | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Alijah Adem | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Mohamed Maxamud | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter