Model Predictions
| Model | Valparaiso Beacons | Northwestern Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.3% | 65.7% | +3.3 | ✓ (12.7 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 7.7% | 92.3% | +13.7 | ✓ (2.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 36.6% | 63.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 8.3% | 91.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 8.0% | 92.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Northwestern Wildcats +16 (86-70). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakim Chaney * | 30 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | +4.9 |
| JT Pettigrew * | 28 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 7-11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 16 | +7.4 |
| Brody Whitaker * | 26 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +0.6 |
| Shon Tupuola * | 25 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | -16.6 |
| Isaiah Barnes * | 22 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | -9.6 |
| Justus McNair | 19 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 5 | -4.2 |
| Carter Hopoi | 18 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +5.0 |
| Owen Dease | 16 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | -10.8 |
| Mark Brown Jr. | 7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -8.0 |
| Tucker Tornatta | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3.7 |
| Kyonte Thomas | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -5.6 |
Northwestern Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrinten Page * | 33 | 7-12 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 15 | +9.2 |
| Jayden Reid * | 31 | 4-10 | 0-4 | 5-6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +9.1 |
| Nick Martinelli * | 30 | 12-19 | 1-4 | 4-7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 19 | +9.6 |
| Jordan Clayton * | 26 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | +8.2 |
| Angelo Ciaravino * | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Justin Mullins | 27 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | +3.7 |
| Tre Singleton | 20 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | +2.1 |
| Max Green | 14 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +3.2 |
| Jake West | 9 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.3 |
* = starter