Model Predictions
| Model | Ball State Cardinals | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.5% | 56.5% | +1.4 | ✗ (3.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves -2 (66-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Ball State Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karsyn Norman | 36 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 7-9 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 11 | +4.9 |
| Bree Salenbien | 30 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -1.0 |
| Grace Kingery | 30 | 6-14 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 11 | +0.6 |
| Zhen Verburgt | 24 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 18 | -7.4 |
| Aniss Tagayi | 23 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0 | +4.8 |
| Alba Caballero | 22 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +7.4 |
| Zuri Ransom | 20 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | +14.4 |
| Tessa Towers | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -6.2 |
| Giorgia Gorini | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +1.1 |
| Ashlynn Brooke | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.4 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Rose | 26 | 8-16 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 2 | +8.3 |
| W. Rogers | 25 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6-10 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 17 | -1.3 |
| M. Dickerson | 22 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1.6 |
| Z. Shannon | 22 | 4-13 | 0-6 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | -4.6 |
| B. Weary | 20 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +2.4 |
| Mia Tarver | 19 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | -6.7 |
| A. Ruddock | 18 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1.2 |
| M. McCollister | 17 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2.1 |
| D'Arrah Allen | 17 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -1 | +6.4 |
| Y. Cox | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +3.4 |
| A. Ferguson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2.0 |
* = starter