Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | Florida State Seminoles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 89.3% | 10.7% | -17.9 | ✓ (13.9 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 85.8% | 14.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 95.0% | 5.0% | -16.2 | ✓ (12.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 94.2% | 5.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.7% | 5.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.8% | 5.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 79.4% | 20.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Florida State Seminoles -4 (87-91). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam. Boozer * | 36 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 7-8 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 23 | +7.3 |
| Isaiah Evans * | 33 | 8-17 | 6-14 | 6-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 17 | -7.3 |
| Caleb Foster * | 31 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 9 | -12.4 |
| Patrick Ngongba * | 26 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 16 | -11.7 |
| Cay. Boozer * | 25 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -5.0 |
| Dame Sarr | 23 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4.0 |
| Maliq Brown | 13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | +2.1 |
| Nikolas Khamenia | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -0.4 |
| Darren Harris | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.8 |
Florida State Seminoles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lajae Jones * | 33 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +12.2 |
| Chauncey Wiggins * | 32 | 8-12 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 15 | +11.7 |
| Robert McCray V * | 31 | 7-9 | 3-3 | 5-7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 19 | +19.6 |
| Martin Somerville * | 25 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | +2.7 |
| Alex Steen * | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | +10.8 |
| Kobe MaGee | 28 | 6-11 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +5.0 |
| Cam Miles | 17 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -8.2 |
| Alier Maluk | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Thomas Bassong | 5 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1.7 |
* = starter