Model Predictions
| Model | Las Vegas Aces | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 77.7% | 22.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.1% | 55.9% | +1.3 | ✗ (3.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -2 (88-90). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Las Vegas Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Gray | 39 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 12 | - |
| A'ja Wilson | 38 | 11-20 | 1-2 | 11-12 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 32 | - |
| Jackie Young | 37 | 7-18 | 1-7 | 6-6 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 17 | - |
| Jewell Loyd | 30 | 4-7 | 4-7 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 16 | - |
| NaLyssa Smith | 17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Dana Evans | 16 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Kierstan Bell | 11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Megan Gustafson | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| A. Nye | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Kiah Stokes | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Thomas | 39 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 23 | - |
| Kahleah Copper | 36 | 6-14 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | - |
| Satou Sabally | 32 | 8-15 | 2-6 | 6-8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 13 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner | 31 | 7-11 | 2-3 | 9-13 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 24 | - |
| Sami Whitcomb | 25 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Akoa Makani | 25 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Natasha Mack | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| K. Westbeld | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter