Model Predictions
| Model | Mercyhurst Lakers | Chicago State Cougars | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.4% | 35.6% | -6.2 | ✗ (10.2 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 65.0% | 35.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 67.4% | 32.6% | -4.0 | ✗ (8.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 75.0% | 25.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 89.3% | 10.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 73.6% | 26.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 73.3% | 26.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.6% | 42.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Chicago State Cougars +4 (78-74). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Mercyhurst Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lemelman * | 34 | 9-15 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 15 | +3.6 |
| Qadir Martin * | 33 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 20 | -5.3 |
| Bernie Blunt III * | 29 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 4-6 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | -2.4 |
| Christian Gamble * | 27 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -3.7 |
| Mykolas Ivanauskas * | 23 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +5.0 |
| Sean Lang | 16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6.9 |
| DeShaun Jackson Jr. | 15 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8.5 |
| Kaden Fuhrmann | 12 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -2.1 |
| James Thomas | 9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1.1 |
| Cameron Johnson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -4.9 |
Chicago State Cougars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Ray * | 38 | 13-20 | 4-5 | 7-8 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 29 | +0.9 |
| Marcus Tankersley * | 32 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 6-10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 14 | -3.8 |
| Dailliss Cox * | 24 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4.2 |
| Corey Sands * | 20 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -23.7 |
| Malek Robinson * | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15.4 |
| Doyel Cockrill III | 25 | 2-11 | 1-8 | 4-6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | +13.6 |
| Chauncey Gibson | 17 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | +19.4 |
| Joseph Owens | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7.8 |
| Braelon Bush | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +11.6 |
| Daniel Zatsepin | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Dakari Thomas | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.2 |
* = starter