Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 60.6% | 39.4% | -2.4 | ✗ (7.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 38.8% | 61.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.5% | 30.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.8% | 29.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +5 (74-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashlon Jackson | 38 | 5-13 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Riley Nelson | 37 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Toby Fournier | 31 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Taina Mair | 31 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Delaney Thomas | 28 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Jordan Wood | 22 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Arianna Roberson | 13 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | - |
| Anna Wikstrom | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elina Aarnisalo | 38 | 7-13 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 18 | - |
| N. Harris | 35 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 9-10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 16 | - |
| I. Nivar | 32 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | - |
| C. Toomey | 28 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | - |
| L. Grant | 25 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 2-5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | - |
| L. Hull | 15 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| N. Brooks | 13 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| T. Queiroz | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | - |
| T. Henderson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| S. Barker | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter