Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.9% | 33.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.0% | 38.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 74.9% | 25.1% | -6.0 | ✓ (6.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 73.6% | 26.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 81.8% | 18.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.4% | 17.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 61.6% | 38.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -12 (70-82). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indya Nivar | 37 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | +5.9 |
| Elina Aarnisalo | 36 | 8-13 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 16 | +6.8 |
| Nyla Harris | 30 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | +7.1 |
| Ciera Toomey | 28 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 | +17.8 |
| Lanie Grant | 24 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 10 | +3.4 |
| Nyla Brooks | 23 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +7.0 |
| Laila Hull | 13 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 12 | +0.5 |
| Taliyah Henderson | 8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3.2 |
| Blanca Thomas | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kymora Johnson | 40 | 8-18 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 9 | +3.0 |
| Paris Clark | 34 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | -0.9 |
| Romi Levy | 27 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 11 | -11.2 |
| Caitlin Weimar | 23 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | +18.1 |
| Tabitha Amanze | 23 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -14.8 |
| Breona Hurd | 21 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | +11.6 |
| Sa'Myah Smith | 18 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -11.3 |
| Gabby White | 6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | +3.1 |
| Jillian Brown | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +1.7 |
| Adeang Ring | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.4 |
* = starter