Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | Louisville Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.8% | 79.2% | +6.5 | ✗ (8.5 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.1% | 76.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 8.2% | 91.8% | +13.3 | ✗ (15.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 13.9% | 86.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 7.7% | 92.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 7.1% | 92.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.8% | 77.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Louisville Cardinals -2 (72-74). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiane Dias Dos Santos | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Kymora Johnson * | 40 | 7-17 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | -2 | +24.6 |
| Paris Clark * | 38 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 18 | +21.9 |
| Romi Levy * | 32 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +8.6 |
| Tabitha Amanze * | 29 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 | +2.0 |
| Sa'Myah Smith * | 16 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +9.1 |
| Caitlin Weimar | 27 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | +21.2 |
| Gabby White | 10 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +9.1 |
| Adeang Ring | 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +3.1 |
| Breona Hurd | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.9 |
Louisville Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Ziegler * | 35 | 5-14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -0.8 |
| Elif Istanbulluoglu * | 34 | 7-10 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 18 | -6.3 |
| Mackenly Randolph * | 32 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3.3 |
| Anaya Hardy * | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -2.7 |
| Tajianna Roberts * | 4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +0.4 |
| Imari Berry | 33 | 4-16 | 1-9 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | -3.7 |
| Reyna Scott | 33 | 6-15 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 3 | -17.7 |
| Skylar Jones | 15 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -3 | -3.4 |
| Grace Mbugua | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1.7 |
* = starter