Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.5% | 82.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 7.2% | 92.8% | +14.1 | ✓ (7.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 5.5% | 94.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.7% | 95.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.0% | 78.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +7 (65-58). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Johnson | 37 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 1 | -2.1 |
| P. Clark | 32 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -8.5 |
| T. Amanze | 31 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 15 | -6.6 |
| G. White | 28 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +12.3 |
| S. Smith | 28 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | +3.5 |
| C. Weimar | 21 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3.2 |
| B. Hurd | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | +4.3 |
| J. Brown | 7 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +2.3 |
| R. Levy | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6.0 |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Mair | 37 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +8.0 |
| A. Jackson | 35 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | +10.5 |
| T. Fournier | 34 | 12-19 | 1-1 | 0-4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 17 | +10.6 |
| R. Nelson | 33 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2.9 |
| D. Thomas | 25 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | +12.9 |
| A. Roberson | 21 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | -14.1 |
| A. Wikstrom | 14 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7.1 |
| J. Wood | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.6 |
* = starter