Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | Florida State Seminoles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 80.5% | 19.5% | -18.0 | ✓ (14.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 75.4% | 24.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 87.3% | 12.7% | -10.6 | ✓ (6.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 70.8% | 29.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 92.9% | 7.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 91.3% | 8.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 91.3% | 8.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 71.1% | 28.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Florida State Seminoles -4 (87-91). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kymora Johnson * | 50 | 10-21 | 5-12 | 6-8 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 26 | -5.8 |
| Paris Clark * | 47 | 8-15 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 20 | -4.4 |
| Sa'Myah Smith * | 36 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -17.6 |
| Tabitha Amanze * | 20 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -6.7 |
| Romi Levy * | 19 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -8.7 |
| Adeang Ring | 24 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | -8.3 |
| Caitlin Weimar | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 | +8.9 |
| Jillian Brown | 17 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8.7 |
| Breona Hurd | 9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Gabby White | 8 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +3.9 |
Florida State Seminoles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amaya Bonner * | 43 | 6-13 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 15 | +28.6 |
| Jasmine Shavers * | 43 | 6-16 | 3-8 | 3-4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +10.7 |
| Allie Kubek * | 40 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | +17.0 |
| Sole Williams * | 36 | 11-17 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 17 | +3.5 |
| Pania Davis * | 23 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -5.3 |
| Tatum Greene | 36 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | +21.9 |
| Emma Risch | 18 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1.3 |
| Sydney Bowles | 7 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Avery Treadwell | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.7 |
* = starter