Model Predictions
| Model | SMU Mustangs | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 2.8% | 97.2% | +26.3 | ✓ (2.3 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 10.7% | 89.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 0.8% | 99.2% | +26.7 | ✓ (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 7.8% | 92.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 8.2% | 91.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +24 (76-52). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
SMU Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulina Paris * | 34 | 6-15 | 1-7 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 3 | +1.7 |
| Zahra King * | 32 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | -6.3 |
| Sahnya Jah * | 19 | 0-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -6 | -1.6 |
| Ayanna Thompson * | 19 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2.2 |
| Miriam Ibezim * | 15 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -7.2 |
| Jzaniya Harriel | 30 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | -13.0 |
| Anaya Brown | 28 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 12 | +4.4 |
| Grace Hall | 23 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -3.7 |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kymora Johnson * | 35 | 7-13 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 21 | +11.9 |
| Sa'Myah Smith * | 28 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 | +3.8 |
| Tabitha Amanze * | 22 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | -6.6 |
| Romi Levy * | 21 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -4 | -10.4 |
| Paris Clark * | 17 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | +13.2 |
| Caitlin Weimar | 18 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 15 | +13.3 |
| Gabby White | 17 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | +13.5 |
| Breona Hurd | 16 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +0.9 |
| Jillian Brown | 14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -7.4 |
| Adeang Ring | 12 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +0.8 |
* = starter