Model Predictions
| Model | NC State Wolfpack | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.3% | 70.7% | +2.4 | ✗ (4.4 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 55.4% | 44.6% | -2.4 | ✓ (0.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 65.5% | 34.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 64.8% | 35.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -2 (76-78). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe Brooks * | 42 | 8-15 | 2-2 | 19-20 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 31 | - |
| Khamil Pierre * | 39 | 6-15 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Zamareya Jones * | 37 | 5-16 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | - |
| Tilda Trygger * | 35 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Qadence Samuels * | 33 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Maddie Cox | 16 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Destiny Lunan | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Devyn Quigley | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kymora Johnson * | 43 | 9-23 | 6-14 | 2-2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 13 | - |
| Sa'Myah Smith * | 37 | 3-12 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Romi Levy * | 27 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Tabitha Amanze * | 24 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 3 | - |
| Paris Clark * | 20 | 2-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Caitlin Weimar | 25 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | - |
| Gabby White | 21 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Jillian Brown | 17 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Breona Hurd | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Adeang Ring | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter