Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | SMU Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 4.3% | 95.7% | +17.0 | ✓ (14.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: SMU Mustangs +31 (100-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Caldwell * | 30 | 8-16 | 0-6 | 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 5 | - |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth * | 27 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -0.4 |
| Christian Harmon * | 25 | 6-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 4 | - |
| Chandler Jackson * | 19 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -2 | - |
| Aly Tounkara * | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | +1.3 |
| Chudi Dioramma | 20 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3-7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7.9 |
| K. Hayman | 18 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -3 | - |
| R. Smith | 17 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 3 | -0.9 |
| Jalen Hampton | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -6.1 |
| F. Sylla | 13 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
SMU Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.J. Edwards * | 34 | 9-13 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 37 | +4.5 |
| Corey Washington * | 31 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 16 | +4.0 |
| Boopie Miller * | 30 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +0.6 |
| Jaron Pierre Jr. * | 28 | 6-16 | 0-6 | 3-5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +0.7 |
| Samet Yigitoglu * | 25 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +8.4 |
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr. | 19 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 | +13.0 |
| Mitchell Holmes | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1.7 |
| B.J. Davis-Ray | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +2.8 |
| Nigel Walls | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3.7 |
| Chance Puryear | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter