Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.8% | 33.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 68.6% | 31.4% | -4.3 | ✓ (1.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 76.8% | 23.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 77.1% | 22.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans -6 (60-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Khamenia | 34 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 | +1.4 |
| Cam. Boozer | 34 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 27 | -12.0 |
| C. Foster | 29 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +12.1 |
| I. Evans | 26 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +9.3 |
| P. Ngongba II | 26 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4-8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | +4.7 |
| D. Sarr | 20 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +4.3 |
| M. Brown | 14 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1.1 |
| Cay. Boozer | 12 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | - |
| D. Harris | 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3.2 |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Fears Jr. | 35 | 0-10 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | -4.1 |
| C. Carr | 35 | 4-13 | 0-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | -5.0 |
| C. Cooper | 32 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 21 | -3.9 |
| J. Kohler | 31 | 5-11 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 13 | -4.1 |
| J. Scott | 26 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | +4.1 |
| K. Teng | 11 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -0.4 |
| C. Ward | 10 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -3.9 |
| D. Ugochukwu | 8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +3.9 |
| T. Fort | 8 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5.0 |
| J. McCulloch | 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +9.5 |
* = starter