Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 70.9% | 29.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.7% | 37.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 68.3% | 31.7% | -4.2 | ✓ (1.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 81.7% | 18.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 76.8% | 23.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 77.1% | 22.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans -6 (60-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam. Boozer | 34 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 27 | +8.2 |
| Nikolas Khamenia | 34 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 | -2.6 |
| Caleb Foster | 29 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +9.0 |
| Isaiah Evans | 26 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +8.9 |
| Patrick Ngongba | 26 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4-8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | +6.2 |
| Dame Sarr | 20 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +0.9 |
| Maliq Brown | 14 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1.1 |
| Cay. Boozer | 12 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | -12.2 |
| Darren Harris | 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2.8 |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coen Carr | 35 | 4-13 | 0-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | -2.0 |
| Jeremy Fears Jr. | 35 | 0-10 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | +3.6 |
| Carson Cooper | 32 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 21 | +1.9 |
| Jaxon Kohler | 31 | 5-11 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 13 | +0.5 |
| Jordan Scott | 26 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | +8.3 |
| Kur Teng | 11 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -0.3 |
| Cameron Ward | 10 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -4.2 |
| Trey Fort | 8 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5.8 |
| Divine Ugochukwu | 8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +0.8 |
| Jesse McCulloch | 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +11.4 |
* = starter