Model Predictions
| Model | Akron Zips | Ball State Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 87.6% | 12.4% | -16.6 | ✓ (3.6 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 87.8% | 12.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 94.3% | 5.7% | -15.5 | ✓ (2.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 71.2% | 28.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 94.4% | 5.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.5% | 5.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.5% | 5.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 78.3% | 21.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Ball State Cardinals -13 (65-78). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Akron Zips
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavari Johnson * | 34 | 9-20 | 2-8 | 5-5 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 16 | -5.8 |
| Amani Lyles * | 34 | 9-16 | 4-7 | 4-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 20 | +3.7 |
| Evan Mahaffey * | 26 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | +9.2 |
| Bowen Hardman * | 18 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2.3 |
| Zach Halligan * | 17 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14.4 |
| Eric Mahaffey | 26 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | +18.6 |
| Shammah Scott | 23 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | -4.5 |
| Sharron Young | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +13.9 |
| Marvin Musiime-Kamali | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Halil Barre | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.7 |
Ball State Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armoni Zeigler * | 37 | 4-15 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Davion Hill * | 32 | 6-12 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +5.1 |
| Preston Copeland * | 30 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +0.6 |
| Mason Jones * | 29 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +13.8 |
| Elmore James * | 20 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | -9.5 |
| Devon Barnes | 23 | 5-9 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +5.6 |
| Cam Denson | 11 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | -18.9 |
| Kayden Fish | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -3.7 |
| Juwan Maxey | 8 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -11.2 |
* = starter