Model Predictions
| Model | Ball State Cardinals | Toledo Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.5% | 86.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 9.3% | 90.7% | +12.5 | ✓ (5.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 12.3% | 87.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 6.9% | 93.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 6.9% | 93.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.7% | 76.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toledo Rockets +18 (73-55). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Ball State Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armoni Zeigler | 36 | 2-11 | 0-4 | 9-12 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 11 | -5.7 |
| Devon Barnes | 25 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | -8.0 |
| Elmore James | 24 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -8.7 |
| Cam Denson | 23 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8.7 |
| Davion Hill | 23 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -8.1 |
| Mason Jones | 18 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9.0 |
| Preston Copeland | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -21.9 |
| Kayden Fish | 15 | 5-12 | 0-4 | 4-6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +9.1 |
| Juwan Maxey | 11 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -5.9 |
| J. Bearden | 6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | +7.0 |
| Kody Clancy | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Blyden Jr. | 35 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 10 | +8.3 |
| Sonny Wilson | 34 | 8-15 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 13 | +5.9 |
| Austin Parks | 29 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 10 | +6.7 |
| Sean Craig | 29 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 19 | +10.3 |
| Mynor Strong | 20 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +15.0 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga | 19 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | +6.0 |
| Kyler VanderJagt | 17 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -6.2 |
| Will James Jr. | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +8.7 |
| London Praytor | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +0.3 |
| Toby Nwokolo | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Tyler Ode | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.3 |
* = starter