Model Predictions
| Model | Ball State Cardinals | Buffalo Bulls | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.5% | 76.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 18.3% | 81.7% | +8.2 | ✓ (4.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.0% | 67.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 95.7% | 4.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.8% | 84.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.9% | 84.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Buffalo Bulls +13 (85-72). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Ball State Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. James | 32 | 4-11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | -10.4 |
| M. Jones | 32 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | -1.6 |
| A. Zeigler | 29 | 6-13 | 0-4 | 3-6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 8 | -7.3 |
| D. Barnes | 25 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 9-10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 14 | -0.4 |
| D. Hill | 24 | 5-10 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 16 | - |
| P. Copeland | 20 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3.7 |
| C. Denson | 16 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +3.3 |
| K. Clancy | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6.2 |
| J. Bearden | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1.2 |
Buffalo Bulls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Freitag | 37 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | +4.7 |
| R. Sabol | 34 | 6-10 | 4-5 | 6-6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 20 | +1.6 |
| A. Brizzi | 30 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 11 | +5.5 |
| N. Batchelor | 30 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 6 | +2.3 |
| D. Talton Jr. | 22 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | +0.8 |
| T. Oboh | 22 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 19 | +10.7 |
| M. Pocknett | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -4.2 |
| E. McKenna | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4.1 |
* = starter