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2025-12-02

Model Predictions

Model East Tennessee State Buccaneers Dayton Flyers Spread Result
Elo 29.2% 70.8% -
Bradley-Terry 22.5% 77.5% -
Margin 11.9% 88.1% +11.0 (6.0 off)
Pythagorean 48.9% 51.1% -
Efficiency 68.5% 31.5% -
Adjusted Efficiency 11.7% 88.3% -
Log Adjusted 11.5% 88.5% -
Points Off/Def 25.7% 74.3% -

Actual: Dayton Flyers +17 (88-71). Predictions use season-end ratings.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
B. Taylor II * 40 7-13 2-5 0-0 4 5 3 0 3 16 12 -
B. Barkley * 34 8-14 2-3 3-4 6 1 0 0 2 21 12 -8.0
C. Morris III * 24 6-9 2-2 5-7 5 1 2 2 1 19 19 +4.7
A. Strothers * 20 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 3 2 1 5 0 1 -17.9
J. McCullum * 11 0-2 0-1 2-2 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 -5.4
J. Smith 25 3-10 1-6 0-0 1 2 2 0 6 7 -4 -14.7
M. Johnson 23 1-5 0-3 0-0 4 0 2 0 1 2 2 +4.9
B. Crump 18 1-2 0-0 2-2 2 0 0 0 1 4 3 -19.5
M. Matthews 3 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -0.7
G. Sisk 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -3.9

Dayton Flyers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
K. Jones * 36 7-10 0-2 1-2 5 5 5 2 1 15 21 +18.7
D. Montgomery * 34 8-14 3-7 8-8 7 3 2 0 3 27 22 +28.0
J. Bennett * 32 4-8 1-4 0-0 0 2 0 2 2 9 3 +14.9
A. L'Etang * 27 3-5 0-1 4-4 5 2 0 0 3 10 9 +17.9
J. Derkack * 27 2-2 0-0 10-13 5 5 4 0 2 14 24 +26.5
J. Conner 16 1-3 1-3 1-2 1 0 1 0 1 4 2 -12.8
B. Heard 13 1-5 1-4 1-2 1 1 0 0 2 4 -1 -9.9
J. Simon 12 1-2 0-1 2-2 1 1 2 0 0 4 6 -0.0
M. Thomas 3 0-1 0-0 1-2 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 +0.0

* = starter