Model Predictions
| Model | UMBC Retrievers | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.6% | 70.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 24.7% | 75.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 6.4% | 93.6% | +14.8 | ✓ (8.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +6 (77-71). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UMBC Retrievers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. King * | 36 | 4-16 | 2-9 | 4-6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 4 | +8.6 |
| D. Armstrong * | 34 | 5-8 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 14 | +1.6 |
| A. Valentine * | 33 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +7.1 |
| D. Dickerson * | 28 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 11 | +5.4 |
| R. Jacobs * | 17 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2.3 |
| J. Tanchyn | 23 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 13 | -1.0 |
| P. Greene | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -4 | -13.8 |
| T. Eze | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +0.4 |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Jones * | 37 | 5-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 17 | -0.4 |
| J. Bennett * | 36 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 | -2.0 |
| D. Montgomery * | 33 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 12 | -2.3 |
| A. L'Etang * | 21 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 6 | -8.7 |
| J. Conner * | 16 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | -9.1 |
| J. Derkack | 21 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +6.6 |
| J. Simon | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | +9.7 |
| B. Heard | 13 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +5.5 |
| M. Thomas | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.5 |
* = starter