Model Predictions
| Model | UMBC Retrievers | Morgan State Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 81.8% | 18.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 68.2% | 31.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 90.9% | 9.1% | -12.6 | ✓ (10.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 74.5% | 25.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 96.6% | 3.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 92.5% | 7.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 92.7% | 7.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 73.9% | 26.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Morgan State Bears -2 (79-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UMBC Retrievers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Valentine * | 35 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 13 | +5.5 |
| D. Armstrong * | 34 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 5-5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 12 | +5.5 |
| J. King * | 33 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | +6.5 |
| D. Dickerson * | 30 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 4-7 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | +5.3 |
| R. Jacobs * | 23 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +6.6 |
| P. Greene | 13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| C. Diggs | 10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| J. Tanchyn | 10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1.1 |
Morgan State Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Davis * | 38 | 7-17 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 7 | -5.7 |
| A. Worrell Jr. * | 27 | 5-14 | 5-9 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 4 | -6.7 |
| W. Peggs Jr. * | 23 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 8 | -5.6 |
| D. James * | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5.7 |
| M. Lual * | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -6.6 |
| R. Lawson | 32 | 2-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1.1 |
| C. Meeks | 30 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | - |
| C. Oliver | 20 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| E. Alvin | 13 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +1.1 |
| M. Harris | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter