Model Predictions
| Model | Vermont Catamounts | UMBC Retrievers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.1% | 54.9% | -3.6 | ✗ (18.4 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 69.0% | 31.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 78.0% | 22.0% | -7.0 | ✓ (15.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 60.5% | 39.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 88.0% | 12.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 87.7% | 12.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 87.8% | 12.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 63.5% | 36.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UMBC Retrievers -22 (47-69). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Vermont Catamounts
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Priede * | 35 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 21 | +18.1 |
| Keira Hanson * | 34 | 6-15 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | +26.2 |
| Jadyn Weltz * | 34 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 10 | +21.6 |
| Malia Lenz * | 30 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | +13.5 |
| Emma Haan * | 20 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Jacklynn Hosier | 23 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +12.1 |
| Savanna Creal | 10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +10.7 |
| Piper Risdon | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Lia Hanson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -0.6 |
| Maren Maxon | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | +2.6 |
| Devon Yarde | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.6 |
UMBC Retrievers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jade Tillman * | 32 | 4-14 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | -5.7 |
| Carmen Yanez * | 31 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -17.2 |
| Heidi Williams * | 30 | 4-14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -4 | -13.0 |
| Tiara Bellamy * | 25 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -11.4 |
| Alaina Williams * | 16 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4.2 |
| Dagny Slomack | 18 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -9.4 |
| Delaney Yarborough | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | -15.0 |
| Kennedy Austin | 14 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | -8.2 |
| Gabby Scott | 12 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -11.8 |
| Lauren Thompson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Maisie Crowley | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -0.5 |
* = starter