Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | South Alabama Jaguars | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.9% | 28.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 76.7% | 23.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 79.5% | 20.5% | -7.5 | ✓ (32.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 80.7% | 19.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 86.0% | 14.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 86.2% | 13.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: South Alabama Jaguars -40 (67-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. McCollister | 23 | 5-14 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 6 | +12.9 |
| B. Weary | 21 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 16 | +17.0 |
| A. Ruddock | 20 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | +9.4 |
| D'Arrah Allen | 20 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 7-8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 12 | +16.2 |
| Y. Cox | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | +17.6 |
| Z. Shannon | 17 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | +22.2 |
| Mia Tarver | 17 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +20.1 |
| C. Rose | 17 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 10 | +24.1 |
| W. Rogers | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | +20.8 |
| M. Dickerson | 15 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | +20.8 |
| P. Fields | 9 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| A. Ferguson | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.7 |
South Alabama Jaguars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Gonzalez | 36 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | -30.7 |
| T. Ortiz | 32 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 7-10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | -24.5 |
| Chaze Harris | 25 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -15.6 |
| A. Sutton | 23 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 2 | -35.9 |
| C. Narcisse | 22 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | -20.4 |
| D. Carter-Hartley | 19 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -13.5 |
| Ronaltha Marc | 13 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | -3.2 |
| A. Mangas | 13 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -3.4 |
| P. Okafor Nweze | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5.5 |
| A. Spann | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -13.2 |
| C. Donnell | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.2 |
* = starter