Model Predictions
| Model | South Alabama Jaguars | App State Mountaineers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.0% | 72.0% | +5.6 | ✓ (2.4 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.5% | 61.5% | +2.6 | ✓ (5.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: App State Mountaineers +8 (65-57). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
South Alabama Jaguars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Olsen * | 38 | 2-14 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -2 | -1.9 |
| Jayden Cooper * | 38 | 5-13 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +8.4 |
| Randy Brady * | 30 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | -8.9 |
| Chaze Harris * | 27 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +8.3 |
| Hantz Louis-Jeune * | 14 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13.2 |
| John Broom | 29 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +15.5 |
| JJ Wheat | 15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -12.0 |
| Stephen Williams | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +8.5 |
App State Mountaineers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Tot * | 39 | 8-18 | 7-17 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 7 | +3.4 |
| Kasen Jennings * | 38 | 2-10 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | -7.3 |
| Alonzo Dodd * | 38 | 6-14 | 2-9 | 4-7 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 20 | +4.5 |
| Luke Wilson * | 33 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 19 | -5.6 |
| Michael Marcus Jr. * | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3.1 |
| Eren Banks | 32 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | +2.2 |
| Chad Moodie | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.6 |
| Jacari Brim | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.2 |
* = starter