Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 12.4% | 87.6% | +10.7 | ✓ (9.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 36.7% | 63.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +1 (83-82). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Hall | 36 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -11.8 |
| Jalen Bolden | 31 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 8 | +1.0 |
| Kyndall Davis | 30 | 4-10 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | -10.6 |
| Franck Emmou | 26 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +7.3 |
| Makai Willis | 18 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | -1.9 |
| Kaden Gumbs | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -17.0 |
| T. Sant | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Mark Drone | 12 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | -9.0 |
| Jaelyn Lee | 10 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +1.1 |
| Robert Fields | 9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +4.1 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hampton | 28 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 14 | +12.9 |
| K. Hayman | 26 | 6-14 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 3 | - |
| Chandler Jackson | 26 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 9-11 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Christian Harmon | 23 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Chudi Dioramma | 20 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +7.0 |
| Joey Chammaa | 18 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | +10.6 |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth | 18 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 6-9 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 | +1.7 |
| TJ Caldwell | 14 | 1-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | - |
| R. Smith | 14 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -2.0 |
| Aly Tounkara | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2.1 |
| F. Sylla | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter