Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | Troy Trojans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.0% | 79.0% | +8.5 | ✓ (11.5 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.4% | 73.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.0% | 69.0% | +8.8 | ✓ (11.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.1% | 68.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Troy Trojans +20 (100-80). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Drone * | 35 | 8-17 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 13 | -7.3 |
| DJ Hall * | 33 | 10-16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 18 | - |
| Kyndall Davis * | 20 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Kaden Gumbs * | 16 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -7 | -9.5 |
| T. Sant * | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Franck Emmou | 27 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | -12.8 |
| Jalen Bolden | 24 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Robert Fields | 15 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | -9.5 |
| Makai Willis | 15 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Jaelyn Lee | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Troy Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Dowd * | 36 | 10-14 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 20 | - |
| Coo. Campbell * | 36 | 6-9 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 22 | - |
| Cobi Campbell * | 31 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | - |
| Theo Seng * | 25 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 | +10.3 |
| Victor Valdes * | 24 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 5-10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Jerrell Bellamy | 19 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 17 | - |
| Kerrington Kiel | 16 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 17 | +21.6 |
| Austin Cross | 13 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
* = starter