Model Predictions
| Model | South Alabama Jaguars | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 55.4% | 44.6% | -1.2 | ✗ (3.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.4% | 38.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.6% | 38.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats +2 (67-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
South Alabama Jaguars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaze Harris | 40 | 9-20 | 0-1 | 4-10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 5 | -0.1 |
| Adam Olsen | 39 | 4-12 | 2-8 | 10-11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | -3.9 |
| Hantz Louis Jeune | 35 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9.3 |
| Jayden Cooper | 30 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | -13.9 |
| Randy Brady | 27 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -3.7 |
| Stephen Williams | 19 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 17 | +2.4 |
| JJ Wheat | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7.5 |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Drone | 33 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 2 | -1.9 |
| DJ Hall | 29 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 17 | -1.7 |
| Kaden Gumbs | 29 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 4 | +0.7 |
| Kyndall Davis | 25 | 2-12 | 0-5 | 4-4 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +13.6 |
| Jalen Bolden | 24 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | +9.7 |
| Franck Emmou | 21 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Robert Fields | 17 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | +3.1 |
| Makai Willis | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -2.8 |
| T. Sant | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1.3 |
| Jaelyn Lee | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4.0 |
* = starter