Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 70.3% | 29.7% | -4.7 | ✓ (14.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats -19 (70-89). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Jackson | 28 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | - |
| K. Hayman | 25 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Jalen Hampton | 25 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 | +5.1 |
| Christian Harmon | 24 | 6-10 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 19 | - |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth | 21 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -3 | +6.9 |
| F. Sylla | 19 | 5-6 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Chudi Dioramma | 18 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 12 | +5.9 |
| Aly Tounkara | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +6.0 |
| R. Smith | 12 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +4.0 |
| TJ Caldwell | 12 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | - |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Gumbs | 38 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 14 | -12.0 |
| Mark Drone | 37 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 9 | -12.0 |
| DJ Hall | 34 | 7-16 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 7 | -12.0 |
| Kyndall Davis | 22 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | -10.9 |
| T. Sant | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Robert Fields | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -3.0 |
| Franck Emmou | 9 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +0.0 |
| Jalen Bolden | 9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Makai Willis | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -8.1 |
| Jaelyn Lee | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1.0 |
* = starter