Model Predictions
| Model | Stetson Hatters | Central Arkansas Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.6% | 90.4% | +15.5 | ✓ (4.5 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 8.4% | 91.6% | +13.1 | ✓ (6.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 24.0% | 76.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 7.3% | 92.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 7.1% | 92.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.7% | 77.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Central Arkansas Bears +20 (93-73). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Stetson Hatters
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Phillips Jr. * | 33 | 8-12 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 15 | -13.7 |
| Ethan Copeland * | 25 | 5-10 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | -8.3 |
| Calvin Sirmans III * | 21 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -5.4 |
| Finley Sheridan * | 21 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | -15.2 |
| Collin Kuhl * | 17 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | +0.3 |
| Jake Johnson | 16 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -5.7 |
| Daniel Macgregor | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -8.6 |
| J.R. Leonard | 13 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -3 | +3.8 |
| Matar Diop | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -7.2 |
| Janusz Ratowski | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10.4 |
| Sean Morgan | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2.2 |
| Alex Doyle | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.5 |
| Miller McGowan | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1.1 |
Central Arkansas Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camren Hunter * | 29 | 8-14 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 18 | +14.1 |
| Ty Robinson * | 25 | 7-13 | 3-8 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 12 | +14.4 |
| Javion Guy-King * | 23 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1.3 |
| Luke Moore * | 22 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2.3 |
| Malchiah Marable * | 21 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | +1.3 |
| Harry Beauchamp | 21 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +22.0 |
| Cole McCormick | 19 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 14 | +23.2 |
| Truman Byrne | 19 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 13 | +10.0 |
| Tyler Lee | 9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -3.4 |
| Parker Applegate | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -9.0 |
| J.C. Shulman | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.6 |
| Ethan Thomas | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4.5 |
| Owen Derhmann | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.6 |
* = starter