Model Predictions
| Model | Little Rock Trojans | Western Illinois Leathernecks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.9% | 96.1% | +23.1 | ✓ (12.1 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 15.4% | 84.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 5.7% | 94.3% | +15.4 | ✓ (4.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 22.2% | 77.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.8% | 97.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.7% | 97.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Western Illinois Leathernecks +11 (84-73). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Little Rock Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaina Payne * | 38 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 | +11.3 |
| Jordan Holman * | 37 | 9-18 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 11 | +17.5 |
| Brenna Burk * | 34 | 3-8 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | -2.5 |
| Mya Cotto * | 32 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 3 | -2.3 |
| Destinee Salgado * | 27 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 10 | -7.2 |
| Blessing Teamer | 16 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1.0 |
| Pearson McVay | 13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Lidia Belmonte Hurtado | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.0 |
| Jarahle Daniels | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -4.8 |
Western Illinois Leathernecks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicastro * | 40 | 11-20 | 2-4 | 13-13 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 37 | 27 | +6.5 |
| Addi Brownfield * | 38 | 6-8 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 21 | +10.9 |
| Kaylen Reed * | 35 | 7-12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 8 | -11.9 |
| Allie Meadows * | 34 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | -3.5 |
| Mallory Shetley * | 28 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4.2 |
| Madison Davis | 25 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | +0.6 |
* = starter