Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Texas Longhorns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.5% | 84.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 2.5% | 97.5% | +20.1 | ✓ (5.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 5.4% | 94.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 14.1% | 85.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas Longhorns +15 (79-64). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciera Toomey | 38 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 14 | +14.6 |
| Indya Nivar | 34 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 6-8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 16 | +4.0 |
| Elina Aarnisalo | 31 | 6-7 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +5.6 |
| Reniya Kelly | 27 | 0-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5 | +5.7 |
| Lanie Grant | 23 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -5.3 |
| Nyla Brooks | 20 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | +0.7 |
| Nyla Harris | 19 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 4 | +12.7 |
| Taliyah Henderson | 4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Blanca Thomas | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -6.2 |
| Laila Hull | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1.6 |
Texas Longhorns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Lee | 40 | 10-16 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 14 | +4.7 |
| Rori Harmon | 40 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | +2.8 |
| Madison Booker | 38 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 10-11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 17 | +10.5 |
| Kyla Oldacre | 30 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 15 | +8.2 |
| Teya Sidberry | 23 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | +2.6 |
| Justice Carlton | 18 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9 | +0.0 |
| Breya Cunningham | 11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -8.7 |
* = starter