Model Predictions
| Model | LSU Tigers | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.5% | 78.5% | +6.2 | ✗ (22.2 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 72.1% | 27.9% | -10.5 | ✓ (5.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 93.1% | 6.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 77.4% | 22.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 81.8% | 18.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 71.6% | 28.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils -16 (77-93). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
LSU Tigers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikaylah Williams * | 35 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +10.7 |
| Flau'jae Johnson * | 33 | 7-11 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 12 | +6.1 |
| Amiya Joyner * | 23 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +4.9 |
| Jada Richard * | 21 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | +3.3 |
| ZaKiyah Johnson * | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -14.5 |
| MiLaysia Fulwiley | 28 | 6-13 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 7 | +22.7 |
| Grace Knox | 26 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 | +3.1 |
| Kate Koval | 26 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | +21.0 |
| Bella Hines | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.5 |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashlon Jackson * | 38 | 5-14 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 6 | +8.1 |
| Taina Mair * | 38 | 5-11 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 13 | +6.9 |
| Delaney Thomas * | 27 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | +12.7 |
| Toby Fournier * | 22 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | -0.2 |
| Jadyn Donovan * | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +13.7 |
| Riley Nelson | 31 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 4 | -3.5 |
| Arianna Roberson | 20 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2.8 |
| Jordan Wood | 11 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.4 |
* = starter