Model Predictions
| Model | Little Rock Trojans | Morehead State Eagles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.1% | 83.9% | +11.0 | ✓ (3.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.1% | 76.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.2% | 67.8% | +4.1 | ✓ (9.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 37.7% | 62.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.3% | 60.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Morehead State Eagles +14 (78-64). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Little Rock Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnathan Lawson * | 39 | 3-12 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 6 | -12.4 |
| Braxton Bayless * | 37 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | -15.0 |
| Cameron Wallace * | 33 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 3-7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | -15.9 |
| Tuongthach Gatkek * | 31 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 19 | -2.7 |
| Kachi Nzeh * | 28 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +1.7 |
| Truman Claytor IV | 22 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | -10.7 |
| Caleb Pennyfeather | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6.4 |
| Tracy Steele Jr. | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.2 |
Morehead State Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Dawson * | 30 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +0.7 |
| George Marshall * | 28 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 6-8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +4.1 |
| Clayton Parker * | 26 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | +4.6 |
| Jon Carroll * | 24 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 | +3.3 |
| Tyonne Farrell * | 19 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 13 | +9.0 |
| Davion Cunningham | 20 | 1-9 | 0-3 | 5-7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -2 | +7.2 |
| Tamaury Releford | 16 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11 | +8.9 |
| Anouar Mellouk | 14 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Josiah LeGree | 12 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | +7.1 |
| Vince Dawson III | 11 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | +4.0 |
* = starter