Model Predictions
| Model | UCF Knights | Villanova Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 25.6% | 74.4% | +5.9 | ✗ (11.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.6% | 67.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.7% | 63.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Villanova Wildcats -6 (98-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UCF Knights
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Johnson | 42 | 11-19 | 3-7 | 17-20 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 32 | +16.1 |
| Dallan Coleman | 42 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 4-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | +12.0 |
| Moustapha Thiam | 36 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | +17.2 |
| Jordan Ivy-Curry | 30 | 5-12 | 4-6 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 14 | +3.0 |
| Tyler Hendricks | 29 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 14 | +18.5 |
| D. Johnson | 22 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Nils Machowski | 16 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2.1 |
| Benny Williams | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3.3 |
Villanova Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Dixon | 42 | 9-24 | 1-11 | 10-12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 11 | -5.4 |
| Wooga Poplar | 41 | 9-22 | 3-5 | 11-11 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 24 | +1.0 |
| Enoch Boakye | 38 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | -10.2 |
| Jhamir Brickus | 34 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -10.9 |
| Jordan Longino | 32 | 0-7 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +9.0 |
| Tyler Perkins | 29 | 6-12 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 13 | +1.9 |
| Jordann Dumont | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.1 |
| Kris Parker | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.0 |
| Josiah Moseley | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
* = starter