Model Predictions
| Model | James Madison Dukes | Toledo Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.1% | 44.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 55.2% | 44.8% | -1.2 | ✗ (4.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.3% | 44.7% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 54.4% | 45.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 68.2% | 31.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 68.3% | 31.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Toledo Rockets +3 (72-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
James Madison Dukes
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Lindsay | 31 | 4-10 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | -14.7 |
| Mark Freeman | 30 | 8-18 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 8 | -2.6 |
| AJ Smith | 27 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -5.2 |
| Xavier Brown | 27 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | +5.5 |
| Eddie Ricks III | 25 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | -3.4 |
| Ebenezer Dowuona | 21 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -5.8 |
| Elijah Hutchins-Everett | 18 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -3.7 |
| Will Lovings-Watts | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6.9 |
| Noah Williams | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2.7 |
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson | 37 | 7-15 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +4.9 |
| Sam Lewis | 34 | 10-14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 12 | +21.0 |
| Isaiah Adams | 34 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | +4.6 |
| Javan Simmons | 30 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | +21.8 |
| Bryce Ford | 23 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +15.7 |
| Seth Hubbard | 19 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -11.8 |
| Grgur Brcic | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -14.4 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5.7 |
| Andre Lorentsson | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9.9 |
* = starter