Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.8% | 35.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 57.0% | 43.0% | -1.6 | ✓ (25.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 62.4% | 37.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 62.7% | 37.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.3% | 46.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs -27 (68-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Davis | 28 | 8-12 | 6-6 | 4-5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 14 | +20.2 |
| Seth Trimble | 27 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 9 | +12.3 |
| Elliot Cadeau | 27 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 20 | +32.1 |
| Jae'Lyn Withers | 25 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 | +28.1 |
| V. Lubin | 21 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Drake Powell | 20 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | +18.4 |
| Ian Jackson | 17 | 3-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Jalen Washington | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | +3.4 |
| Cade Tyson | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -9.5 |
| Ty Claude | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -10.5 |
| James Brown | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -7.5 |
| Russell Hawkins | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.9 |
| Dante Mayo Jr. | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1.9 |
| John Holbrook | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.9 |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Boyd | 30 | 4-14 | 2-8 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | -22.4 |
| BJ Davis | 26 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 8 | -11.7 |
| Magoon Gwath | 24 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 4-8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -11.3 |
| Miles Byrd | 24 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -21.7 |
| J. Coleman-Jones | 23 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -16.8 |
| Wayne Mckinney Iii | 19 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +0.4 |
| Miles Heide | 18 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | -7.9 |
| Taj Degourville | 16 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -14.9 |
| Pharaoh Compton | 12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -8.5 |
| Kimo Ferrari | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +7.3 |
| Cam Lawin | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1.8 |
| Ryan Schwarz | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| D. Lopez | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Demarshay Johnson Jr. | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.8 |
* = starter