Model Predictions
| Model | Tarleton State Texans | California Baptist Lancers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.2% | 79.8% | +8.5 | ✓ (4.5 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.4% | 88.6% | +11.3 | ✓ (7.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 18.0% | 82.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 9.8% | 90.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.5% | 90.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.3% | 73.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: California Baptist Lancers +4 (55-51). Ratings: 2024-25 season-end ratings.
Tarleton State Texans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubu Benjamin * | 40 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -3.5 |
| Dantwan Grimes * | 40 | 7-10 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 14 | -3.4 |
| Keitenn Bristow * | 37 | 6-14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 5 | -5.6 |
| Freddy Hicks * | 34 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 7-11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +1.5 |
| Izzy Miles * | 34 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +2.5 |
| Nick Krass | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1.9 |
| Chris Mpaka | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Jordan Mizell | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4.0 |
California Baptist Lancers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique Daniels Jr. * | 38 | 6-18 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | -2 | +2.6 |
| Kendal Coleman * | 28 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1.9 |
| Sam Silverstein * | 27 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | +13.7 |
| Tylen Riley * | 25 | 2-8 | 2-5 | 4-6 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | +6.8 |
| Javonte Johnson * | 22 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | -10.3 |
| Adam Moussa | 27 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | +6.7 |
| Martel Williams | 21 | 4-12 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | -5.2 |
| Bradey Henige | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | +2.0 |
* = starter