Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Troy Trojans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.5% | 52.5% | +0.5 | ✓ (12.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Troy Trojans +13 (94-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Ford Jr. | 39 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 9 | -18.4 |
| Joseph Pinion | 33 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | -18.4 |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 33 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -5.0 |
| Derrian Ford | 28 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 13 | -18.4 |
| Dyondre Dominguez | 24 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 19 | -9.3 |
| Kobe Julien | 21 | 4-11 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | -10.1 |
| Taryn Todd | 17 | 2-12 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -3 | -4.4 |
| Avery Felts | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3.9 |
| Rashaud Marshall | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.9 |
Troy Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Rigsby | 34 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 9-10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | +18.4 |
| Tayton Conerway | 32 | 8-17 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 12 | +18.4 |
| Thomas Dowd | 31 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 5-5 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 18 | +19.8 |
| Jackson Fields | 23 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | +1.0 |
| Marcus Rigsby Jr. | 20 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Coo. Campbell | 20 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | +18.5 |
| Theo Seng | 16 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 12 | +17.4 |
| Victor Valdes | 13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Randarius Jones | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Kerrington Kiel | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter