Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | South Alabama Jaguars | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 57.3% | 42.7% | -1.6 | ✓ (1.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.3% | 36.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: South Alabama Jaguars -3 (71-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Ford Jr. | 40 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Joseph Pinion | 37 | 7-14 | 5-12 | 4-4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 21 | -3.1 |
| Kobe Julien | 32 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 5-8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 20 | -3.0 |
| Taryn Todd | 27 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 | -2.8 |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 21 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | -3.1 |
| Derrian Ford | 19 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Dyondre Dominguez | 13 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Rashaud Marshall | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3.1 |
| Avery Felts | 4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
South Alabama Jaguars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Dunning Jr. | 38 | 10-21 | 1-4 | 6-6 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 20 | +3.1 |
| Myles Corey | 35 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 6-8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 6 | +3.1 |
| John Broom | 30 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | +3.1 |
| Dylan Fasoyiro | 27 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | +3.2 |
| Elijah Ormiston | 25 | 8-16 | 1-1 | 4-8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 14 | +3.2 |
| Judah Brown | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| JJ Wheat | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Cantia Rahming | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jayden Cooper | 8 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Randy Brady | 6 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter